Manhattan Real Estate Market Report: Q3 2024
This analysis of the Manhattan real estate market for September and Q3 2024 focuses on key trends in the co-op, condo, and 1-3 family home segments, along with an in-depth look at the luxury market. Drawing on data from the Elliman Reports, the findings provide insights into contract signings, new listings, and price trends across different price brackets. The market saw varied performance, with some segments experiencing robust growth, particularly in higher-end condo sales, while others, such as co-ops and certain price ranges, faced declines. Additionally, the luxury market’s performance, marked by rising prices but softer median sales, highlights nuanced buyer behavior amid fluctuating inventory and market dynamics.
Co-op Market Overview
In September 2024, Manhattan’s co-op market saw a slight annual decrease in new signed contracts, dropping by 8.1% to 316 contracts, down from 344 in September 2023. Contracts under $500,000 increased by 2.0%, while the $500K-$999K segment experienced a significant rise of 43.0%. However, higher price segments, particularly $1M-$1.99M, saw a sharp decline of 51.6%. Notably, the $4M-$4.99M segment saw the first appearance of signed contracts in September 2024. Meanwhile, new listings grew by 5.1%, driven by increases in listings across most price ranges, particularly in the $10M-$19.99M range, which surged by 77.8%.
Condo Market Overview
The Manhattan condo market demonstrated a significant improvement in September 2024. New signed contracts increased by 74.5%, reaching 274, up from 157 the previous year. The surge was prominent in the $1M-$1.99M category, which saw a 97.6% increase, while the $10M-$19.99M segment rose by 1100.0%. Listings also increased slightly, by 2.4%, with the highest growth in listings occurring in the $2M-$3.99M category, which rose by 6.3%. Although there was a sharp decline in listings above $20M, contracts in this category fell by 33.3%.
1-3 Family Market Overview
The market for 1-3 family homes in Manhattan experienced notable growth in September 2024, with new signed contracts increasing by 83.3%, rising from 6 contracts in 2023 to 11 in 2024. Contracts in the $5M-$9.99M range saw a fivefold increase. In contrast, contracts in the $4M-$4.99M range dropped entirely. On the supply side, new listings grew by 41.2%, with the most significant increases in the $2M-$3.99M category, which rose by 116.7%.
Manhattan Sales Summary
In Q3 2024, Manhattan’s overall sales declined by 2.5% year over year, with 2,784 closed sales. The median sales price dropped for the third consecutive quarter, down by 3.0% to $1,115,000, despite an increase in the average price per square foot (0.3%) and the average sales price (0.9%). Sales below $1M saw a slight increase, while the luxury market (sales over $4M) saw a marginal annual rise of 3.8%. Listing inventory remained relatively stable, with a slight annual decline of 0.6%, though months of supply rose by 2.6% compared to the prior year.
Luxury Market Market Overview
Manhattan’s luxury market (top 10% of sales) saw mixed results in Q3 2024. The average sales price grew by 4.4% to $8.35M, and the average price per square foot rose by 3.8%. However, the median sales price dropped by 4.0%, signaling softer pricing in the top end. The number of closed luxury sales also decreased by 2.8%. Luxury inventory grew by 5.4%, marking the third consecutive annual increase, largely driven by an increase in new development supply.
These insights reveal dynamic shifts in Manhattan’s real estate market, with strong performance in condos and luxury segments, alongside challenges in co-ops and specific price ranges.
Conclusion
The Manhattan real estate market in September and Q3 2024 reveals a mixed landscape, reflecting both challenges and opportunities. While new signed contracts surged in the condo and 1-3 family home markets, the co-op segment experienced contraction, particularly in higher price tiers. Luxury sales showed resilience in terms of average price growth, but the drop in median sales prices and inventory shifts suggest that the market may be adjusting to external economic pressures. As the broader market adapts, Manhattan continues to offer a range of investment opportunities, especially in the higher-end condo and luxury sectors, where buyer demand remains strong.
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